Sam Solomon
Note: This article was written in 2000
When the Reform Movement won massive victories in the February 2000 elections to the parliament, there was talk of a Prague Spring in Tehran and the Reform Movement's leader, President Khatami being Iran's Mikhail Gorbachov. Since then no less than 18 liberal' newspapers have been closed, some of the editors jailed for being un-Islamic, and at least one close ally of Khatami, Saeed Hajjarian, has been the victim of an assassination attempt. The government then delayed announcing the results of the election in certain areas. So when parliament sat for the first time on May 27th, 2000 only 249 of the 290 seats were filled. The empty seats represented districts where the conservative Council of Guardians had either not certified the results of had declared the result void.
Iran is clearly in the midst of a massive internal struggle between the 'Conservatives' led by Ayatollah Khamenei and the 'Reformers' led by President Khatami. It has even been suggested that people would take to the streets if the Reform parliament had not been allowed to meet. However the Reform parliament has sat, and this might indicate that the Reformers are going to exercise more influence. If this is the case, which is by no means certain1, then it is important for Christians to ask who the Reformers are and whether they will make a difference for the church.
As with most political movements 'Reformers' is an umbrella term which covers at least three political parties. The first is the Co-Operative Islamic Front (or Participation Front) led by Mohammad Reza Khatami brother of the President, who won a landslide victory in 1997. Though this party has only existed a few months, it still managed to win the largest number of seats in the February elections. But apart from being associated with the president; talking in favour of democracy; and slackening rules limiting personal freedom, especially for women, this party has no clear political agenda as such. It says it stands for political freedom, but nobody knows who this freedom is for.
The second party in the Reform Movement is called 'The Fighters of The Islamic Revolution.' This party was founded over 25 years ago to fight against the Shah's regime. At that time the party mixed radical Islam with Marxism. Now it has moved more to the centre and advocates political pluralism and economic freedom rather than state control and ownership. Led by the ex-deputy Prime Minister, Behzad Nabavi, this party with 30 seats in the new parliament has significant influence.
The third party is the 'Majma e Rouhanioon', or 'The Assembly of Clergy'. In the 80's this party was a very radical Islamic party. It called for the nationalisation of the economy and the exporting of the revolution. Led now by Mehdi Koorabi this party has also moved to the centre and is calling for more democracy and diplomatic relations with the U.S. The party has 20 seats in the new parliament. As well as these three main parties, there are a number of other independents members of the new parliament who will support President Khatami and call themselves Reformers.
For the Christian observer it's important to see from this brief overview that all the Reformers have their roots in radical Islamic fundamentalism. They all totally support the 1979 Revolution which ushered in the world's first Islamic Republic with a theocratic government. To interpret 'Reform' as meaning a return to pre-1979 Iran is to completely misunderstand the situation. All the Reformers are revolutionaries, nobody wants to dismantle what was achieved in 1979, and Ayatollah Khomeini, the leader of that Revolution, remains a sacred figure. On the first day of the new parliament many of the Reformers repeatedly praised the achievements of Khomeini, and later a wreath was laid at his tomb.
Why are they Reformers then? They are Reformers because they want to introduce more democracy and freedom into the revolutionary structures. Khatami, a respected mullah who trained at Qum, the power base for the 1979 revolution, does not for a moment question the legitimacy of an Islamic Republic. But he and his followers want to give the people the right to choose it. They want the Islamic Republic to draw its legitimacy from the ballot box. They don't want this to happen just for theoretical reasons - in a country with high inflation and 16% unemployment there is real concern about the economy. The Reformers have concluded that with the authority of the ballot box economic measures can be introduced, such as attracting foreign investment, which will improve the standard of living. The Reformers are motivated by a fear that if the economic situation deteriorates people could take to the streets, and this would threaten the whole revolution. So they want to Reform, to preserve the 1979 Revolution.
The conservatives also want to preserve the 1979 Revolution, but they oppose the Reformers' campaign for more democracy because, quite rightly, they see that in essence this contradicts Khomeini's concept of the Ayatollahs' divine right to rule. As Khomeini's successor, Khamanei rules by the right of this concept, and he is supported by those who call themselves the 'Guardians' of this revolution. Because they are 'Guardians', they often talk about enemies - be they foreign, the favourites are the US and Israel, or domestic, like liberal newspaper editors. In a recent Friday sermon, Khamenei said 'I will not allow anybody to lead the country towards secularism.' He can say that not only because of his belief in his divine right to rule, but also because he controls the main levers of power - the military, the 125,000 strong Revolutionary Guards, and the judiciary.
So it is by no means likely the Reformers will dominate the real corridors of power, and even if they gain more influence and introduce more democracy, this does not mean there will be more religious freedom. The students will hold up slogans of -'Democracy not Theocracy', but this means 'Islamic democracy'. The leader of the Iran Freedom Movement, Ibrahim Yazdi, says their aim is to create - 'a democracy that is Iranianized and Islamicized'. This means there will be no religious freedom because Islam by its nature does not allow religious freedom. Both democrat and theocrat will support the persecution of apostates from Islam because this is laid down in the Qur'an, and more than 99% of the population believe the Qur'an is God's word.
It is even possible that the situation for religious minorities will get worse if the Reformers gain more power. It might well be to their advantage to take a tough line with converts to Christianity to prove their Islamic credentials. Or if radicals in the provinces lash out against religious minorities, the Reformers would not risk losing their reputations to defend them.
However one factor that might improve the situation for Christians is that for economic reasons the Reformers want to improve relations with the West, including the US. Human rights abuses, including the persecution of apostates, would jeopardise foreign investment. This concern does not guarantee Reformers would protect Christians - it is just a factor they would have to consider.
It is also likely that the church would benefit with the rest of the country if the Reformers relaxed media censorship. There would be opportunities for Christians to introduce material with subtle Christian themes into magazines and newspapers, and many more Christian programmes could be beamed for satellite TV.
Iran is certainly shifting politically, but when you look at who the Reformers are, political reform in Iran will change little for the church. Whether the Conservatives or Reformers win in the corridors of power, the situation for the Christians will be much the same: they will be living in a country which is 99% Muslim and converts to Christianity will have no rights. And the situation for mission will change little. It will still be extremely difficult for missionaries to enter Iran, and if they are Westerners they will be viewed with intense suspicion. Given the probable political future for Iran, church growth will not come with Western missionaries, but by training Iranian nationals.
Sam Solomon is a Bible College lecturer and expert on the Middle East
Chronology of Recent Political Events in Iran
January 1979 Mohammad Reza Shah Pahlavi leaves Iran
February 1979 Ayatollah Khomeini returns to Iran. Greeted by millions
April 1979 Iran becomes an Islamic Republic.
September 1980 Iraq invades Iran
1980 - 1988 Internal enemies crushed; war with Iraq ends in stalemate ('88)
May 1989
Ayatollah Khomenei dies. Millions mourn.
Ayatollah Khamenei becomes supreme spiritual leader
Mr Rafsanjani becomes President with limited power
February 1993 President Rafsanjani increases his power
February 1997
Moderate President Khatami elected by 70% of electorate. Especially popular with the young and women.
Reform movement is born.
July 1999 Students riot over closure of Reform newspaper.
February 2000 Reformers win large majority of seats in parliament.
May 2000 Reform Parliament sits
1One Iranian political scientist has predicted that there's a 70% chance the conservatives will try and overthrow Khatami and gives odds of 5-1 against the possibility of Khatami being around next year